1.5-Unit Play. Take #956 Houston (-155) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #956 Houston (-1.5, +130) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m.)
Houston really just has Pittsburgh’s number. The Astros are 12-4 in the last 16 meetings and are 51-21 against the Pirates in Minute Maid Park. The Pirates are just 2-6 in their last eight games and they are starting to sell off their pieces bit by bit. This obviously has a negative impact on a team’s psyche and I think that the Pirates are almost set to pack it in. Houston is in desperate need of an off day. But after getting embarrassed over the weekend in San Fran I think that they are ready for some home cooking. Lance Berkman, who has absolutely killed the Pirates in his career, is entering that part of the season when teams just can’t get him out. He’s been hitless just once in his last 11 games and is 10-for-22 recently. I think he has a big series. Mike Hampton is 3-0 in three starts against the Pirates this season with a ridiculous 0.90 ERA in 20 innings against them. Virgil Vazquez has been decent in two starts this year, but is an unproven commodity.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #962 San Francisco (-160) over Florida (10 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #962 San Francisco (-1.5, +130) over Florida (10 p.m.)
In the last three weeks the Marlins have only played two road series and they are just 1-5 in those games. They had to fly cross country last night to be in San Francisco today after beating up on low-lifes Pittsburgh and Washington last week. The Giants are really, really good at home. And Matt Cain is 9-2 in his last 11 starts while the Giants are 39-18 as a favorite. Cain is also 12-2 against the N.L. East and the Giants are 5-1 at home against a lefty. They were shut down by Sean West in their first look at the lefty last month. But San Fran has been doing solid work against southpaws and should get their licks in today. The Marlins are just 10-24 at San Fran and I think they get this series off to a slow start.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #966 Detroit (-130) over Kansas City (7 p.m.)
Gil Meche was complaining about having a “dead arm” and possibly some shoulder tendonitis last week after two terrible outings against St. Louis and Pittsburgh, which followed a 132-pitch CG effort in Arizona. So what did the Royals do in Meche’s last start? They let him throw 121 pitches in just six innings in a loss to Minnesota. Meche is 2-8 in his last 10 starts and he has a 9.42 ERA in his last three outings. The Tigers are 4-2 this season against the Royals and lit up Meche in a 13-1 win the last time they saw him. This is Detroit’s first home game following a 10-game road trip and I like backing teams that are rejuvenated by playing back in their home park. Army Galarraga is 15-6 as a favorite and he is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his three career starts against the Royals.
2-Unit Play. Take #972 Seattle (-110) over Baltimore (10 p.m.)
Let’s keep betting against the Orioles. Baltimore has not been good against left-handed pitching and they haven’t been good on the road this year. They blew one last night in L.A. and I think that they are just dragging themselves up to Seattle. I don’t like that the M’s had a cross country flight from Boston yesterday. But what I do like is the way that they have been playing lately. They have won three of their last four at NY and Boston and I think this team clearly believes it can be a competitor out West right now. Jarrod Washburn has been very good this season and while Brad Bergesen has been better than expected, he has been significantly weaker on the road. We’ll take hot team over cold team on the short number.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #968 Boston (-1.5, -110) over Oakland (7 p.m.)
After a decent start in a win over Detroit his last time out were going to fade Brian Anderson here. He threw 107 pitches in that game. He has topped 100 pitches three other times this year. In the game following that laborious effort his numbers look like this: 0-3 with a 9.60 ERA. He is another mediocre lefty and the Red Sox usually have their way with mediocre lefties. Great home team, great team hitting lefties, and Boston is 20-7 against the A’s in Fenway and that is going against a team that is terrible on the road, facing John Smoltz, and pretty poor so far this season. Sox are 21-10 over the last month and 91-41 at home. They are also 17-7 against lefties. I’ll bite for a big win on the Sox who are coming off a bad series loss to Seattle at home.
1-Unit Play. Take #952 Philadelphia (-1.5, +125) over Cincinnati (7 p.m.)
Cole Hamels is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his five starts against the Reds. Johnny Cueto has been his usual up-and-down self, but I think that Philly can carry some momentum over from their sweep of the sad sack Mets from this weekend. The Phils are 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 11-5 in the last 16.
Today’s Totals
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Cincinnati at Philadelphia (7 p.m.)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Kansas City at Detroit (7 p.m.)
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Pittsburgh at Houston (8 p.m.)
All of these series below are the 'under' series that we're going to chase this week. The idea is that these teams aren't likely to go 'over' for three straight games in their series, due to good pitching, weak offenses, the solid 'under' trend throughout the last two months around the league, and oddsmaker adjustments. That's what we've been doing more of lately and we've been pretty successful - even with two series (of 8) that didn't come through over the weekend. Oakland, San Fran, San Diego, Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago and Seattle have all been solid 'under' teams. Throw in the Reds, Mets, Royals and Astros and those are the teams that I've targeted as the ones to chase until their offenses get turned around. If you are unsure of the method, go back and check: see how many times that these "key" teams have gone 'over' three straight times over the last eight weeks. The above totals feature 'under' teams and real solid angles and matchups as well.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Texas at L.A. Angels (10 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Oakland at Boston (7 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Florida at San Francisco (10 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 10.0 San Diego at Arizona (9:40 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (7 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Baltimore at Seattle (10 p.m.)
