3.5-Unit Play. Take #928 Minnesota (-155) over Detroit (8 p.m., Friday, July 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #928 Minnesota (-1.5, +120) over Detroit (8 p.m., Friday, July 3)
Note: Bump ML play to 4.0 Units.
Detroit is trotting out some kid making his MLB debut. And you all know how I feel about playing guys in that spot. On top of that, Lucas French is a fringe prospect that had been up-and-down in the minors. Minnesota is back in the Dome after a long road trip and they have been brilliant in that spot. The Twins are 40-16 in their last 56 home games after a road trip of a week or more. On top of that, Minnesota is a stellar 22-4 at home against a left-handed starter and they are 58-27 overall at home. Kevin Slowey is 12-1 when he has five days' rest and he has beaten the Tigers four straight times. I like the Twins to jump out first in this series.
3-Unit Play. Take #913 L.A. Dodgers (-135) over San Diego (10 p.m., Friday, July 3)
Even without Manny, this line would be ripe. I think that Chad Gaudin maxed himself out in his last performance (8 innings, zero runs) and is going to come back down to earth (he has a 5.00 ERA). Hiroki Kuroda was not sharp in his last outing and got beat in a low-scoring affair. I think that he will bounce back tonight under the bright lights with all of the Manny buzz. The bottom line is that the Dodgers are just better than San Diego and that the Dodgers have dominated their division this year. If Manny decides to show up and if he comes out of the gate firing this one will be a blowout. I actually don't think that will happen. I think Manny will go 0-for-4 but that the Dodgers will find a way to win - just like they have without him - and take this one 4-2.
2-Unit Play. Take #905 Atlanta (-130) over Washington (6:30 p.m., Friday, July 3)
There are a lot of good reasons to play against Atlanta here. They are coming off an ultra-emotional homestand. They are due for a letdown after a big sweep of Philadelphia. And they never, ever play well against the Nationals and Atlanta is pathetic in Washington. But in the end, it comes down to pitching. . Kawakami has given up 10 runs or less in 10 straight starts and two runs or less in six of 10. Atlanta is just two games out of first place now and I think that they are energized to be back into this thing. They are the better team, they hit lefties really well, and I think they have some steam at the moment. So it's worth going after. This play should be rated more, but because of the struggles in Washington we're sitting at 2.0 Units.
2-Unit Play. Take #912 Colorado (-130) over Arizona (8 p.m., Friday, July 3)
Note: Lower to a 1.5-Unit Play.
Colorado is rolling. They are 21-5 in their last 26 games and it is time for some revenge against Arizona. For the past few years the D-Backs have rolled the Rockies with superior pitching and clutch hitting. This D-Backs team is not very good. In fact, they suck. I like the Rox to make a statement and win this one big. Why lower the Unit rating? Because I absolutely despise Jorge De La Rosa and he has been one of my biggest fades over the past three years. But I'm ignoring the pitchers in this matchup and taking a team view.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #904 Florida (-155) over Pittsburgh (6 p.m., Friday, July 3)
The Fish in first place? Huh? Well, that's what could happen if the Phillies lose and Florida wins tonight. Chuckles Morton is on the hill for the Pirates and the Marlins are familiar with his work from his days in Atlanta. Florida is really on an upswing right now and are playing fired up since they are still in the thick of the race. I think they come out and get Game 1 from a Pirates team that really could have used a day off yesterday instead of blowing a big lead against the Mets. This is Pittsburgh's first road game after a long homestand and I like fading teams in those spots.
Today’s Totals
These are the series that we’re going to be ‘under’ chasing this weekend:
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Oakland at Cleveland (7 p.m., Friday, July 3)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 St. Louis at Cincinnati (7 p.m., Friday, July 3)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Atlanta at Washington (7 p.m., Friday, July 3)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m., Friday, July 3)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (10 p.m., Friday, July 3)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Seattle at Boston (7 p.m., Friday, July 3)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Houston at San Francisco (10 p.m., Friday, July 3)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 10.0 N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Friday, July 3)
