06.06.2009.

[El-Maestro 3]

2009 Belmont Stakes Picks

 

1st place horse - #7 Mine That Bird

2nd place horse - #1 Chocolate Candy

3rd place horse - #4 Summer Bird

 

$100 recommended bet

 

$4 Exacta on 7 with 1,2,4,6,8 = $20

$1 Trifecta - 7 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 = $20

$1 Superfecta - 7 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 = $60

 

Mine That Bird is well set up to win this race - the pace won't be blistering and there is no clear front-runner, so he'll have the opportunity and the room to unleash a big late move under a very confident and red-hot Calvin Borel. There's not a ton of value in betting the Derby winner to win, though, because his already low win price will be bet down further. By keying him on top of an exacta, a trifecta and a superfecta we can look to maximize our potential return. It's an all or nothing approach, but that's the best way to go when you like a heavy favorite and aren't willing to settle for peanuts.

 

 

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

 

 

 

 

141st Belmont Stakes

6 p.m., Saturday, June 6

Belmont, New York

 

$7 Exacta Wheel Bet (Total Wager: $49): No. 7 Mine The Bird OVER No. 1 Chocolate Candy, No. 2 Dunkirk, No. 4 Summer Bird, No. 5 Luv Gov, No. 6 Charitable Man, No. 8 Flying Private, No. 10 Brave Victory.

(No. 7 over No. 1, No. 2, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 8, No. 10)

$2 Trifecta Wheel Bet (Total Wager: $20): No. 7 OVER No. 2 Dunkirk and No. 6 Charitable Man OVER No. 1 Chocolate Candy, No. 2, No. 5 Luv Gov, No. 6, No. 8 Flying Private and No. 10 Brave Victory.

(No. 7 over No. 2, No. 6 over No. 1, No. 2, No. 5, No. 6, No. 8, No. 10)

 

$30 Win Bet (Total Wager: $30): No. 7 Mine That Bird.

 

$1 Superfecta (Total Wager: $1): No. 6 Charitable Man, No. 2 Mine That Bird, No. 3 Chocolate Candy, No. 5 Luv Gov.

(No. 6 over No. 2 over No. 3 over No. 5)

 

 

I absolutely hate putting all of my eggs in one basket - especially in a horse race. But the bottom line here is that Mine That Bird looks like it is primed for this race. I don't have to tell you: you probably saw the same thing I did at the Kentucky Derby, when the horse blew out the field, and at the Preakness, where if there had been five more lengths this horse would be lining up for a Triple Crown. Mine That Bird is a closer and it's one of the top closers I've seen in the Triple Crown in some time. I've seen faster horses and better horses, but I don't remember a horse that can close like this one. And I remember telling myself the moment the Preakness was finished that I would get on Mine That Bird in the Belmont. So I'm trusting my instincts and we'll put all of our eggs in that basket and hope that it's hip to be square.

 

I don't really like the odds on the challengers. That's a big part of the problem. There just isn't much value out there on the lower six horses. I mean, only one horse at higher than 15-to-1? That's odd to me if the top three horses are SO clear-cut better than the field. I was hoping to split up about 40 percent of our roll and throw it down on the underdogs and set it up so that if there was a "shocker" then we'd get paid. That was my instinct in the Derby and I ignored it. But as I broke down the tape of the races for the horses and looked at the past results of this group I just didn't see anyone out there that presented much value. Charitable Man is way overrated. Dunkirk barely showed up for the Derby, and now we're supposed to swoon at a longer, more challenging race? I like Flying Private and Luv Gov as sleepers, but I can't take them seriously enough to get down on them. And with Chocolate Candy I'm trusting the oddsmakers; I expected around 7- or 8-to-1 as the No. 4 horse. But when I see 10-to-1 that's enough of a swing for me to start walking away.

 

Anyway, if Mine That Bird comes through we're going to have a very, very happy day. If he doesn't then it will be an unfortunate end to what has been an unusually wacky Triple Crown season.

 

 

 

 

Best of Luck- Robert Feringo

Edited June 6, 2009 by El-Maestro

[helicop 0]

I thank for the information.

[El-Maestro 3]

No problem buddy http://www.bet-club.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/48thumbsup.gif

 

 

Edited July 1, 2009 by El-Maestro